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2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season (Predictions)
The '''2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season '''was a above average hurricane season. With the continued strengthening of the La Nina, activity was much higher than previous years. Normal time for activity in this basin is from June 1 to November 30, however tropical cyclone formation is possible at anytime of the year. Seasonal Forecasts In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Hurricane and Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk, the United Kingdom's Met Office, and Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Grayand their associates at Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained roughly 12 tropical storms, six hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 66–103 units.NOAA typically categorizes a season as either above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE Index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season are considered occasionally as well. Preseason Forecasts On December 9, 2014, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a public consortium consisting of experts on insurance, risk management, and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London, issued its first outlook on seasonal hurricane activity during the 2017 season. In its report, the TSR predicted 15 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and a cumulative ACE index of 100 units. This forecast was largely based on the possibility of a Moderate La Niña forming by July to August Timeframe. Season Summary Timeline ImageSize = width:800 height:200 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/05/2017 till:01/01/2018 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/06/2017 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_<39_mph_(0-62_km/h) id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_39-73_mph_(63-117 km/h) id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_74-95_mph_(119-153_km/h) id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_96-110_mph_(154-177_km/h) id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_111-130_mph_(178-209-km/h) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_131-155_mph_(210-249_km/h) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_≥_156_mph_(≥250_km/h) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:14/05/2017 till:17/05/2017 color:TS text:Arlene from:10/06/2017 till:12/06/2017 color:TD text:Two from:03/07/2017 till:11/07/2017 color:C3 text:Bret from:27/07/2017 till:31/07/2017 color:TS text:Cindy from:02/08/2017 till:19/08/2017 color:C5 text:Don bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/05/2017 till:01/06/2017 text:May from:01/06/2017 till:01/07/2017 text:June from:01/07/2017 till:01/08/2017 text:July from:01/08/2017 till:01/09/2017 text:August from:01/09/2017 till:01/10/2017 text:September from:01/10/2017 till:01/11/2017 text:October from:01/11/2017 till:01/12/2017 text:November from:01/12/2017 till:01/01/2018 text:December TextData = pos:(400,30) text:"(From the" pos:(447,30) text:"Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale)" Storms Tropical Storm Arlene On May 12, the NHC started to monitor a non-tropical wave for the potential for development. By May 14, the wave formed a LLCC and was given a medium chance of formation within 5 days. The wave gradually got more organized and on May 14 the NHC designated the first system of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season as Tropical Depression One. Tropical Depression Two On June 6 the NHC noted the possibility of a system forming out of a tropical wave near the Bay of Campeche. Hurricane Bret On June 30, the NHC noticed an area of low pressure producing gale force winds but wasn't organized enough to be a tropical depression, but they said it had a low chance of formation in 2 days. The area of low pressure would struggle to strengthen because of abnormally high wind shear around it, prompting the NHC to downgrade it's possibility of development. The wave would start to get more organized as it moved out of the area of high wind shear and would start to organize. On July 3 the NHC started to release advisories for Tropical Depression Three. Three would continue to move slowly to the west in the direction of the Leeward Islands and would slowly strengthen. Three would strengthen into Tropical Storm Bret just 150 miles to the east of the Leeward Islands. Bret would continue to move slowly and to strengthen reaching 70 MPH. The NHC started to warn the Leeward Islands about the possibility of a Hurricane or even a major hurricane hitting them and released a Hurricane Watch for the Leeward Islands. Bret would reach Hurricane Status for the first time on July 6, just 45 miles from the leeward islands. The hurricane watch was changed to a Hurricane Warning. Bret would slowly move over the Leeward Islands and cause little damage on the islands, only totaling $21 million (2017 US Dollars) and was only known to cause 1 death, on the islands. After the damage done on the Leeward Islands, Bret would weaken back into a tropical storm as it passed the islands. Bret however, would re-strengthen back into a hurricane on July 8 and started to take a turn to the north and started heading northwest, in the Caribbean Sea. Bret would start to rapidly strengthen because of warmer SST's. Bret would reach Category 2 hurricane status after strengthening and having 105 MPH winds, and would continue to strengthen as it neared the "Hurricane Killer" also known as Hispaniola. Bret would reach major hurricane status later that afternoon and had winds of 115 MPH. A major hurricane warning was released after the strengthening of Bret. Bret would continue to near the Island Nation and would make landfall with the same intensity at major hurricane status. The Mountains of Hispaniola would start to have an effect on Bret immediately weakening it to a tropical storm. Bret would move over Hispaniola and would become a remnant low on July 11. Later that day, Bret's remnants would dissipate completely because of there being a lack of a circulation in Bret's remnants. Overall Bret was known to cause a little over $550 Million (2017 US Dollars) in damage, most of it coming from the damage in Hispaniola, and was known to cause 44 deaths directly and 3 indirect. Also 13 people were declared missing by Hispaniola's government. As of November 30, 2017 those people still haven't been found. Tropical Storm Cindy On July 27, the NHC started to monitor a tropical wave south of the Cape Verde islands for potential development. Hurricane Don On August 1, the NHC started to monitor a robust tropical wave and noted the possibility of development. The next day the system, rapidly organized and was named tropical depression five. Five would strengthen into Don and would become a tropical storm with 50 MPH winds. Tropical Storm Emily On August 10, the NHC started to monitor a rapidly developing tropical wave in the Gulf of Mexico. The wave developed later that day and became known as tropical depression six. Six would strengthen into Tropical Storm Emily and would stall out at 40 MPH. The next day Emily would enter into an area of higher wind shear and would weaken back into a tropical depression on August 11. 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